Slim Sports - NFL Betting Trends & Research

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🏈 Games & Trends

🔥 Hottest Trends

Your week

Teams you have already used

Won't pick

Road games Division games Short week games Opponent off extended rest

Optimal Projected Survivor Path

FAQ — what these numbers mean

🏈 Fantasy(beta)

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Scoring type

Passing TD

TE premium

Interception

Start / Sit Tool

Pick two players to compare. The list follows the position tab above.

What are my chances?

— pick a player

Side Home / Away Favorite / Underdog

Timeframe

Season from

Week from

Game type Final week of regular season

Week 17 through 2020, week 18 from 2021 on. Playoff-bound teams often rest starters, so these games carry extra variance.

Part of the season

Late season is the three weeks before the finale — 15 to 17 in an 18-week season, 14 to 16 in a 17-week one. The finale itself is excluded; use the control above to put it back.

The Number

Spread min

Spread max

Absolute spread size, e.g. 3 to 7 finds all games with a line between 3 and 7 points.

Total min

Total max

Situation Division game Conference game Kickoff slot Day of week

International game

Played outside the US (London, Germany, Mexico, Brazil, etc.). Toronto and Hawaii count as domestic.

Rest & Form bet side

Rest min

Rest max

Off a bye (13+ days) Opponent off a bye

Coming off an overtime game Off an international game, no bye

Coming off a straight-up Coming off an ATS

Win rate min

Win rate max

Opp win rate min

Opp win rate max

Whole numbers, so a team at .500 entering the game is 50.

Min games played entering

Set to 4+ to stop early-season records from being noise.

Travel bet side

Miles, 21d min

Miles, 21d max

Miles flown in the three weeks up to kickoff, assuming the team goes home between games. Earlier games count both ways; this one counts out only. Median is about 1,950. Weeks 1 and 2 are excluded — there is no three-week history yet, so setting either box drops those games.

This trip min

This trip max

Time zones crossed

Measured against the team's own home base, so it survives relocations and handles Arizona skipping daylight saving. Eastbound is the direction that costs a team sleep.

Venue & Weather Roof Surface

Temp min

Temp max

Wind min

Wind max

Weather is null for domes and for ~130 outdoor games, mostly 2022. Those games drop out when a weather filter is set.

Teams & People Bet-side team

Opponent

Quarterback bet side

Head coach

Rookie QB

Team quality (EPA)

Rank among all 32 teams by EPA per play, from the games BEFORE each one — so a query never sees the game it is grading. Null for the first four weeks of a season, and those games drop out when any of these is set.

Window This side's offense This side's defense Opponent's offense Opponent's defense

Year-by-year record for the current query. A trend that only works in three seasons out of twenty is usually noise.

Takes your current filters and tests one additional split at a time, ranked by units won. Treat anything under ~100 games as a hypothesis, not an edge — and remember that scanning many splits will always surface some that look profitable by chance.

Split by Market Min sample

Side Home / Away Favorite / Underdog

Timeframe

Season from

Week from

Game type Final week of regular season

Week 17 through 2020, week 18 from 2021 on. Playoff-bound teams often rest starters, so these games carry extra variance.

Part of the season

Late season is the three weeks before the finale — 15 to 17 in an 18-week season, 14 to 16 in a 17-week one. The finale itself is excluded; use the control above to put it back.

The Number

Spread min

Spread max

Absolute spread size, e.g. 3 to 7 finds all games with a line between 3 and 7 points.

Total min

Total max

Situation Division game Conference game Kickoff slot Day of week

International game

Rest & Form bet side

Rest min

Rest max

Off a bye (13+ days) Opponent off a bye

Coming off an overtime game Off an international game, no bye

Coming off a straight-up Coming off an ATS

Win rate min

Win rate max

Opp win rate min

Opp win rate max

Whole numbers, so a team at .500 entering the game is 50.

Min games played entering

Set to 4+ to stop early-season records from being noise.

Travel bet side

Miles, 21d min

Miles, 21d max

This trip min

This trip max

Time zones crossed

Measured against the team's own home base, so it survives relocations and handles Arizona skipping daylight saving. Eastbound is the direction that costs a team sleep.

Venue & Weather Roof Surface

Temp min

Temp max

Wind min

Wind max

Weather is null for domes and for ~130 outdoor games, mostly 2022. Those games drop out when a weather filter is set.

Teams & People Bet-side team

Opponent

Quarterback bet side

Head coach

Rookie QB

Team quality (EPA)

Window This side's offense This side's defense Opponent's offense Opponent's defense

🏃 Players

Player Player

Role, this game usage share, not depth chart

Ranked by that week's realized share of the team's carries (RB) or targets (WR/TE) — RB1 is the team's leading rusher that game, not the man listed as the starter. Descriptive of the game being graded, not a projection, so this is safe to filter on without looking ahead.

With or without a team-mate same team, same game

Pick the player above, then someone who has actually lined up on his team.

And a second team-mate optional

Grade

Gamble Responsibly. 21+ Historical trends, not predictions. Odds shown are the books' own and may be delayed; confirm at the book before betting. NFL betting trends and College Football betting trends, by week and game.